First impressions are tough.
every september, week 1 The NFL season offers each team another round of making a first impression and a chance to change their view.
That perception could already be in place when you start throwing points splashing into the mix, and those clubs that were tagged as underdogs in the NFL in the opening game have a much sharper score to climb against the sentiment of the bookmakers.
And speaking of the underdogs in the NFL, this is a far cry from the first batch of the weekly Covers column of the same name. However, with NFL betting becoming increasingly popular (and the SEO team doing an amazing job), this will probably be the first time many of you are reading it.
“Okay, JLo. First impression time. The pressure is on. Don’t fail.”
I’m Jason Logan. I’ve been with Covers.com since 2005 and at the wheel of this NFL pick for the past four years, proud of the 126-104-1 ATS all-time mark in the regular season and playoffs (55%). This record includes 31-28 ATS last year.
That’s not a bad thing considering the name of the game is the “underdogs” and I can only choose from the football teams that get points – teams that often lie near the bottom of the NFL betting power ratings.
Underdog is actually a counter-first impression: a subtle dance that requires seeing the “good” in bad teams and the “bad” in good teams, all while observing market perception, injuries, and any other key feature that can give that little pup an extra pop. .
All that said, if you really want to win over someone with a first impression: Pick some winners.
To NFL Week 1…
NFL Picks vs Spreads for Week 1
Click on each selection to go to the full analysis.
Best NFL Rewards
If you’re signing up for a new sportsbook for the 2022 NFL season, here are two of the best* bonuses available:
a) New FanDuel users can bet $5 and get $150 in free bets! open an account now
b) New users can get two risk-free bets Up to $2000 at PointsBet! open an account now
* Eligible locations are in the United States only. Also, check out our full list of NFL Promo Codes for the year 2022.
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams Pick (+2.5)
The Buffalo Bills for 2022 is making a first impression on bookies ahead of their first-week opener in Los Angeles.
That positive perception has moved the Super Bowl champion defending LA Rams from one point favorite to +2.5 underdogs at home versus Buffalo, with ticket counts one-sided and dealing with the Bills trying to powerbomb bets through the tailgate table Thursday night.
While expectations (and Super Bowl odds) Flying for Buffalo, this team isn’t without its flaws and the Rams are the only crew to exploit. Two of the Bills’ biggest strengths as of 2021 are weaknesses suddenly entering 2022.
The offensive line was ranked among the best in the NFL last season, but the pre-season rankings lower this group’s rankings due to new (old) faces and uncertain protectors interfering in the starting innings. By no means will the Bills’ O-line be as bad, it won’t be as great as it was last season. And last season is very much the basis for the first week’s odds.
Unfortunately for Buffalo, the rush of the Los Angeles pass makes even the great offensive lines look like rusty lawn chairs. Josh Allen is strong under pressure but won’t have time to allow deep blows to develop. In addition, this offense falls behind the curve in adjustments with Promoted OC Ken Dorsey invites plays for the first time ever in the aftermath Brian Dabol is being hunted by giants.
Another sore point for Buffalo heading into Week 1 is the absence of top corner Tre’Davious White, who will start the year on the PUP roster while recovering from an ACL tear in Week 12 last year. This high school was touted among the best of 2021, but it built a lot of that reputation on the shoulders of bad opposition quarterbacks.
Just look at this sad list of competitor bystanders: Ben Roethlisberger, Tua Tagovailoa (x2), Taylor Hynek, Davis Mills, Trevor Lawrence, Mike White, Carson Wentz, Trevor Simian, Mac Jones (x3), Cam “F- J “Newton, Falcons’ Ryan died at week 17, and Zach “How’s your mom doing?” Wilson.
Things weren’t cut and dry when Buffalo QBs played high-quality, especially after White went down, giving up a large passing area in OT losses to Tom Brady, Bucks, and of course Patrick Mahomes and the Chief in the playoffs.
Stafford’s elbow problem over the summer is one reason the bookies shy away from using rams and ran that opening spread over the fence. But he’s been in full force against Stafford over the past month, according to team reports, and Matty is in there shedding snot from a mock. Amazon Prime Balls (Maybe CGI?) on Insta.
The Rams don’t get the same respect reserved for defending champions, their forward streaks and forward looking streaks reflecting negative public perception. While things could go sideways for Los Angeles as the season kicks off, the Rams will never be as healthy and ready for the game as they are in the first week opening.
picking Rams +2.5 (-110 at bet365)
Pittsburgh Steelers (+6.5) in the Cincinnati Bengals . pick
It is a new era in North Asia. The Steelers, longtime guards of the division, are expected to finish last of that group of four in 2022 – handing Mike Tomlin his first losing season in what will be 16 years at the helm of Pittsburgh.
But before we put the horrible towels in the dirt and crown the Bengals (or the Ravens or Hell, even the Browns) as the new AFC stewards, we’re soon playing the Steelers, who will be down swinging for the week. 1.
Pittsburgh still boasts a top 5 defense in the league and this passing rush will kick the tires (and rears) of a revamped offensive line in Cincinnati. The Bengals have spent a lot improving protection around Joe Burrow, but I’m not on this unit as important.
There are many new faces up front, and Burrow and O-line haven’t had any reps at full speed or even a full chemistry cooking camp due to early injuries to OLs and a QB appendectomy limiting his work since late July.
Cincinnati also lost TE CJ Uzomah and replaced him with Hayden Hurst, who doesn’t come close to the same pass blocker – a necessary role against Pittsburgh pressure that will bring more lightning after adding Brian Flores as a defensive assistant.
The Bengals’ pass protection will be significantly improved from last year – not difficult considering how poorly they are – but they will still work to wrinkle up against one of Sunday’s most dangerous defenses.
All in all, the weight of the AFC title and the near win of the Super Bowl have set the bar too high for Cincinnati. Last year’s team benefited from a strange year in the division and a beneficial stretch at home that generated magical momentum and got this team to play their best at the right time. This magic is long gone.
As for the Steelers, market perception is low – due to infraction. But the addition of subtraction with the retirement of Ben Roethlisberger. His dead arm and sluggish feet were an albatross around the neck of this offense. While Mitchell Trubesky (Which I expect to start week one) Not his most attractive off-season addition, his movement and positive play in pre-season have put Pittsburgh ahead of the 2021 QB stalemate.
I would have liked to have the Steelers in a cold touchdown in July, but I would have +6.5 because that spread might narrow once RB Nagy Harris Obtain formal approval (“on track” for week 1 after a foot sprain) prior to the first week.
picking Steelers +6.5 (-110 in Caesar)
Covers NFL betting analysis
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) in the Washington Leaders Choice
Two privileges shrouded in obscenity. Which one comes clean in the first week?
Jaguars seem to be pulling themselves out of the toilet, with a clever hire in Doug Pederson and a franchise player formation in Trevor Lawrencealong with a talent-rich defense ready to jump in in 2022.
The leaders, on the other hand, may have a neat new name, but that is still the name of Washington “Whatevers” – a club constantly clouded by controversy. They play the outcast QB, who has received worse reviews than his previous bands than that electric “Tummy Tightener” I bought for $14 on Wish.
Oh, and you know who has more information on Carson Wentz than anyone else? The elegant visor-like Jon Hamm on the side of a Jaguar.
Pederson drafted Wentz while with Philadelphia and brought him to the brink of MVP talks before injuries wiped out his shot at Super Bowl Glory and a steady decline in performance forced the coach to bench his star student in place of Jalen Hurts in 2020.
As for the new Dawn Pederson, Lawrence has received “meh” reviews in pre-season but has a promising squad around him. Not only in terms of players skill – A group that turned heads during pre-season reps – But also a stopping unit turning to Mike Caldwell to get the most out of midfielders Josh Allen and overall #1 pick Travon Walker.
Things are looking much better for the Jacksonville defense than the leaders at this point, with Chase Young sidelined in the first four games and a safety start, Camryn Curl could also sit in the first week (thumbs up).
That streak has fallen across the industry after the opening up to +4 Jaguars, but there are a few Jacksonville +3.5 hooks out there and we’ll need thrust protection in the shootout.
picking Jaguar +3.5 (-120 in FanDuel)