5 Big Leaps Predictors and 5 Big Leaps Predictors… (September 12) – DobberHockey

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released fantasy guide On August 4, and the latest update is September 11 with the latest player experiences as well as my Calder Trophy rankings (expect that later today, September 12, as I finalize). pick up fantasy guide Here and immediately download both the PDF file and the spreadsheet. The guide will continue to get updates on injuries, signings, camp cuts and more – predictions, Font groups All notes are updated all the time.


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This week’s episode of Keeping Karlsson went through my projections and highlighted some of my boldest projections—both on the upside and downside. You can watch the YouTube episode below. I thought I’d explain some big jumps or dive into the point predictions for each game that I have and give some insight.

First, I want to touch on the pace of the points. I spend about as much time analyzing and coming up with a projection of the expected games played as I do with the average score for each game. Look carefully at the number of matches a player misses year after year, giving weight to the recency (if healthy) and also determining (if injured) whether the injury is a one-off. I’m a little sick of these things. So, if a player is listed as having 55 points in 65 games, that means the pace for the full season is 69 points. But, if a player ends up staying healthy and somehow gets into those 17 extra games, I tend to treat it like he’s slowing down a bit and play it conservatively. So in this case, I’d word it like 55 points, but if my league had an IR, I’d treat it as 65 (not 69). Meaning, I’d like to call him back a bit. As far as full season predictions are concerned, just take comfort in knowing that I’m really delving into each player’s injury trends.


big jump

Jack Ruslovich – That’s the allowance here, because it obviously depends on whether he gets johnny hockey as his home. Other options Bon Jenner And the Cole Selinger. Any of these three has a chance at that spot, and the winner gets a boost. If Ruslovich gets the spot, I think he’ll hit 70 points. If he doesn’t, I still think he has a solid year and is well over 50. Even if Ruslovich missed Goudreau’s spot full-time, he’d still at least take a look there. As with all stripes collections, there is some mixing and matching throughout the season. Roslovic, a US citizen, finished last season with 25 points in 32 games. He’s entering his prime, and frankly, he has a higher side than Jenner. I don’t think Sillinger is quite ready yet. That’s why I tend to be on the higher side with Rosslow.

Anthony Bouvier – Bouvier jumped a little bit because last year was awful. It’s easy to increase your horrible score by 25 percent, isn’t it? Carrots have a new boss, and this helps, but at the same time – only one player has passed 60 points and he is not Bouvier. It will bounce back to 50.

Jacob Cicero The young defender is a default injury lockout this year. But it won’t be as bad as last season where he missed 35 games. A healthier Chychrun will be a better Chychrun, even with Shane Justiesberg He spends a lot of his time in PP. I also think Chychrun is being traded before the Christmas holidays, which can only help.

Conor McMichael – It’s been a slow start to his National Hockey League career so far, but that’s often the case even with the best odds. He is highly regarded by the officers and his icy time can be said to be even better this season than in the past. Health scratches are probably a thing of the past, too. He’ll need to break into the top nine first, and that’s a deeper team this year. But I do believe in his talent level and think he’ll take off as soon as this place opens – most likely in some form Marcus Johansson injury, or something like that.

Pavel Zacha – This is the guy who produced at a pace of 57 in 2020-21. As a bigger striker, I felt (and still feel) that he had other gear. He has played 386 professional games and this is his BT season. with Brad Marchand To start the campaign, he must get some early PP time to establish himself. Getting a foothold early will set the trend for the rest of his season. I projected him 51 points, which is a fairly conservative number for me. To analyze this more deeply by looking at “pace” is not the way to go about this, as it will almost certainly lose time and my 74-game prediction is a pretty solid guess.

the nose

Mason’s career – Well, I guess everyone expects a drop in this guy, so I’m not going out on a limb here. And expecting him to miss 15 matches is a good bet, as he gets hurt every year at every level he’s played. It’s the style of play that he plays. I think his numbers will start off strong because he’s going to have ice time and his mates who deserve a contract that big, but he’s going to start losing that spot and have a weaker second run. The 5on5 S% (12.1) was pretty high last year and we’ll quickly understand how good his former teammate was Anton Lundell He is into making his buddies much better.

Matt Duchene – A career year at the age of 31 just one season after a career decline? Sure, all right. But you’d be crazy betting he matches hers. The S% and 5on5 S% were also their professional highs. Ignore last season. Ignore the previous two weak seasons for that. Instead, look back at his best years before all of that. He had 0.96 points per game in 2018-19, 0.99 in 2013-14, 0.89 in 2012-13 and 0.84 in 2010-11. This results in an average of 0.92 points per game. You smashed 11 out of 43 last year, because you can undo seven or eight PPG goals from last year’s 16, which would bring him back to his previous career high (nine).

Nazim Qadri Another career year for a player in his thirties, this time it is my destiny who is also 31. His career high pace in the full season was 75 in the short 2012-2013 shutdown – otherwise, he wouldn’t have been his best above 61. Last year he finished with a score of 87. And while that’s crazy, his 5on5 S% doesn’t scream back and hold him The huge will ensure he sees more ice time and PP time than he’s ever seen in his career. The extra ice time and PP time will help raise his stats to good heights – not just the 100 point heights he just enjoyed. Although I still made him post more than one point per game, I replayed his display quite a bit.

Stephen Stamkos The number three player in his 30s and at the highest level of his career, Stamkos finished with over 100 points for the first time (106). That spirited finish was ridiculously good (40 points in the last 21 games). This ending is unsustainable, so he brought his production back to normal during the last quarter and finished with 88 points. He missed some time, because he usually does, which puts him at around 82 points (in 73 games).

Ivan Barbashev – He had 23.4 S% and 12.1 5on5 S% both of which are screaming inclines. He wasn’t overly effective in the power game either. I’ve always felt that Barbashev could be a top six player and now maybe he’s got his place there or in a very strong third line. I think it would be closer to a 50 point player than a 60 point player.


As noted, Ian Gooding was a guest on Keeping Karlsson this week, take a look:


See you next Monday.